The recent crisis in the Red Sea continues to rage, Yemen’s Houthi armed leadership has issued the latest threat to attack the ships of the international coalition of countries that joined the United States in the Red Sea convoy.
The threat was made in response to the “Keepers of Prosperity” international operation announced by US Secretary of Defense Austin on the 18th. Austin announced that in addition to the United States, France, Britain, Bahrain, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Seychelles would join the coalition in escorting the Red Sea.
Several shipping companies have also announced a detour from the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea, which has also significantly increased the shipping distance to 3,400 nautical miles, or about 14 additional days of voyage.
Correspondingly, the main futures contract of the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center Container Index (European line) has hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days. This morning, it again hit the daily limit of 1236.8 points, up nearly 40% for four consecutive trading days.
Since 2020, international shipping fees have experienced multiple rounds of rises and falls, and their price fluctuations are far greater than those of other varieties.
What’s next?
Sidharth Kaushal, a sea power researcher at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, said the US-led naval coalition was still being formed and was capable of deploying a sizeable naval force in the Red Sea.
But Kaushal added that challenges remain because “the cost of drones and missiles” used by the Houthis to target shipping is very low, and anti-aircraft interceptor missiles from naval ships are not cheap.
Another major risk is the threat of escalation. Kaushal noted that the most effective way to eliminate the Houthi threat would be to attack their launch sites, but could increase the risk of conflict. He added, “I don’t think the Houthis, Iran or the United States want a broader escalation at this time.”
Corey Ranslem, CEO of Dryad Global, a maritime security firm, believes the threat to shipping “will continue for the foreseeable future” as long as the conflict in Gaza continues.
“Depending on how the US-led coalition comes together, if their efforts are effective, we could also see the level of threat to commercial shipping go down,” he said.
“For the Houthis, the challenge will be to issue enough of a threat to stop ships from passing through the Red Sea while avoiding U.S. military action against them,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Verisk Maplecroft.
“The Houthis don’t need to use force to stop ships from passing through the Red Sea, they just need to cause enough disruption to make Marine insurance prohibitively expensive or force most shipping companies to suspend their activities there, and that’s enough.”
